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Introduction

The inherent challenges of tournament pool play typically lead to at this point of the ATP World Tour Finals we’re often left confused, hastily looking for a calculator and attempting to calculate the complex potential outcomes for advancement. Yet tonight’s match between Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime, fortunately, is easy. It’s a straight shootout: the successful player secures a final four matchup against Carlos Alcaraz at this year-end tournament; the defeated player is eliminated.

Zverev is the favourite for this: the elite athlete is the more accomplished player, has been the champion at this event previously on two instances and is ahead in their direct encounters six matches to three, winning both the games they've played on an covered hard surface.

But … this is the surface on which Felix has secured the bulk of his trophies, he is in great form after his remarkable turnaround against Ben Shelton on recently and he took out the German in the US Open early stage in late summer. Furthermore, conditions are faster in Turin than at Flushing Meadows, which is even more beneficial in the Canadian's benefit.

If the German player is reserved, as he did against Sinner, and Auger-Aliassime takes it to the European player with his powerful serves and fearless play, there is a strong chance the young Canadian – the earlier standout who was once in line before the younger champions to replace the tennis icons – who earns the questionable privilege of playing against the top-ranked player the next day.

Play begins: at about 8.30pm local time, 19:30 Greenwich Mean Time.